Kuongororwa Kwakakwana Kwemitengo Yekugadzira Magetsi Yemayuniti Ekugadzira Gasi Rechisikigo

I. Kuumbwa Kwakakosha Kwemari Yekugadzira Magetsi

Mari yekugadzira magetsi yemagetsi ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo inotora mutengo wemagetsi wakaenzana nehupenyu hwese (LCOE) sechiratidzo chikuru chekuverenga, chinosanganisira zvikamu zvitatu zvikuru: mutengo wemafuta, mutengo wekudyara kwekuvaka uye mutengo wekushanda nekugadzirisa. Chikamu chezvikamu zvitatu chinoratidza musiyano uri pachena wekugoverwa, pakati pazvo mutengo wemafuta unonyanya kutonga uye unosarudza zvakananga mwero wemutengo wese.

(I) Mutengo wemafuta: Chikamu chikuru chemutengo, Kukanganiswa kukuru kunokonzerwa nekuchinja-chinja kwemitengo

Mutengo wemafuta ndiwo chikamu chikuru chemutengo wekugadzira magetsi wemagetsi ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo. Data rekuverenga maindasitiri rinoratidza kuti chikamu chayo chinowanzo kusvika 60%-80%, uye chinogona kudarika 80% mune dzimwe nzvimbo dzakanyanya kushata dzemusika, zvichiita kuti ive chinhu chakakosha chinokanganisa kuchinja kwemitengo yekugadzira magetsi. Kuverengerwa kwemutengo wemafuta kunonyanya kutsamira pamutengo wegasi rechisikigo (kusanganisira mutengo wekutenga nemari yekutumira nekuparadzira) uye kushanda zvakanaka kwekugadzira simba remayuniti. Fomura huru yekuverenga ndeiyi: Mutengo weMafuta (yuan/kWh) = Mutengo weGasi rechisikigo (yuan/cubic meter) ÷ Kushanda Zvakanaka kweKugadzira Simba reYuniti (kWh/cubic meter).

Kana zvabatanidzwa nedanho remaindasitiri makuru aripo, avhareji yemutengo wegasi rechisikigo remuno kufekitori inenge 2.8 yuan/cubic meter. Kubudirira kwekugadzira simba kwezvikamu zve combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) kunosvika 5.5-6.0 kWh/cubic meter, zvichienderana nemutengo wekugadzira simba reyuniti inosvika 0.47-0.51 yuan; kana zvikamu zveinjini dzekupisa mukati zvakagoverwa zvikashandiswa, kushanda kwesimba rekugadzira simba kunosvika 3.8-4.2 kWh/cubic meter, uye mutengo wekugadzira simba reyuniti unokwira kusvika 0.67-0.74 yuan. Zvakakosha kuziva kuti inenge 40% yegasi rechisikigo remuno rinoenderana nekutenga kunotengeswa kunze kwenyika. Kuchinja-chinja kwemitengo yepasi rose yeLNG uye shanduko mukugadzirwa, kupihwa, kuchengetwa uye kushambadzirwa kwemafuta zvichaendeswa zvakananga kumagumo emutengo wemafuta. Semuenzaniso, panguva yekukwira kwakanyanya kwemitengo yeJKM yekuAsia muna 2022, mutengo wemafuta ekugadzira magetsi emakambani emagetsi anoshandisa gasi emuno wakambopfuura 0.6 yuan, zvichipfuura zvakanyanya chiyero che break-even.

(II) Mari Yekudyara Mari Yekuvaka: Chikamu Chakagadzikana Chekudyara Mari Yakagadzika, Kuderera Kuchibatsirwa Nenzvimbo

Mari yekudyara pakuvaka inguva imwe chete yakatarwa, kunyanya kusanganisira kutenga michina, mainjiniya ekuvaka, kuisa nekutanga, kutenga ivhu nemari yekubhadhara. Chikamu chayo mumutengo wekugadzira magetsi wehupenyu hwese i15%-25%, uye zvinhu zvikuru zvinopesvedzera hunyanzvi hwemidziyo uye mwero wenzvimbo.

Kubva pakuona kwekutenga michina, tekinoroji huru yematurbine egasi ane mutoro wakanyanya kushandiswa nemakambani makuru epasi rose, uye mitengo yemidziyo inopinzwa kunze kwenyika nezvimwe zvinhu zvakakosha ichiri yakakwira. Mari yekudyara yeyuniti kilowatt static yeprojekiti yekugadzira simba remagetsi inosvika miriyoni imwe chete yekilowatt inosvika 4500-5500 yuan, pakati payo iyo gasi turbine ne supporting waste heat boiler zvinoita 45% yezvese zvakadyarwa mumidziyo. Mumakore achangopfuura, mabhizinesi emuno akakurumidzisa kufambira mberi kwetekinoroji. Makambani akadai seWeichai Power neShanghai Electric akazoona zvishoma nezvishoma kuti mayuniti anogadzira gasi rechisikigo ari pakati nepakati nepadiki uye zvikamu zvepakati, zvichideredza mutengo wekutenga michina yakafanana ne15%-20% zvichienzaniswa nezvigadzirwa zvinopinzwa kunze kwenyika, zvichideredza mutengo wekudyara wekuvaka. Pamusoro pezvo, kugona kwemayuniti uye mamiriro ekuisa anokanganisawo mitengo yekuvaka. Mayuniti madiki akaparadzirwa ane mapfupi ekuisa (mwedzi 2-3 chete), mari shoma yekuvaka, uye mari shoma yekudyara yeyuniti kilowatt pane nzvimbo huru dzemagetsi; Kunyangwe mayuniti makuru akabatanidzwa ane mari yekutanga yakawanda, ane mabhenefiti makuru mukushanda zvakanaka kwemagetsi uye anogona kuderedza mari yekudyara mayuniti kuburikidza nekugadzira magetsi akawanda.

(III) Mari Yekushanda Nekugadzirisa: Mari Inogara Iripo Kwenguva Refu, Nzvimbo Yakanaka Yekuvandudza Tekinoroji

Mari yekushandisa nekugadzirisa inguva dzose yekudyara muchikamu chose chehupenyu, kunyanya kusanganisira kuongorora nekugadzirisa michina, kutsiva zvikamu, mari yevashandi, kushandiswa kwemafuta ekuzora, kurapwa kwekuchengetedzwa kwezvakatipoteredza, nezvimwewo. Chikamu chayo mumutengo wekugadzira simba rehupenyu hwese chinosvika 5%-10%. Kubva pamaonero eindasitiri, mari yekushandisa yekuchengetedza nekugadzirisa ndeyekutsiva zvikamu zvakakosha uye masevhisi ekugadzirisa, pakati pazvo mutengo wepakati wekugadzirisa turbine imwe chete hombe yegesi unogona kusvika mamiriyoni mazana matatu eyuan, uye mutengo wekutsiva zvikamu zvikuru wakakwira.

Mayuniti ane mazinga akasiyana ehunyanzvi ane musiyano mukuru pamari yekushandisa nekugadzirisa: kunyangwe mayuniti anogadzira zvinhu zvine simba guru aine mari yekutanga yakawanda, kushandiswa kwawo kwemafuta ekuzora kunongova 1/10 chete yeaya emayuniti akajairwa, nekuchinja kwemafuta kwenguva refu uye mukana wakaderera wekudzima, izvo zvinogona kuderedza zvinobudirira mari yevashandi nekurasikirwa nekudzima; pane zvinopesana, mayuniti akadzokera shure muhunyanzvi ane kutadza kunowanzoitika, izvo zvisingangowedzere chete mari yekutsiva zvikamu, asiwo zvinokanganisa mari yekugadzira magetsi nekuda kwekudzima, zvichikwidza zvisina kunanga mutengo wakakwana. Mumakore achangopfuura, nekuvandudzwa kwetekinoroji yekushanda nekugadzirisa yemuno uye kushandiswa kwehurongwa hwekuongorora hungwaru, mari yekushandisa nekugadzirisa mayuniti anogadzira gasi rechisikigo emumba yakaderera zvishoma nezvishoma. Kuvandudzwa kwehuwandu hwekuchengetedza hwakazvimiririra hwezvikamu zvepakati kwakaderedza mari yekutsiva neinopfuura 20%, uye nguva yekuchengetedza yakawedzerwa kusvika maawa 32,000, zvichiwedzera kudzvanya nzvimbo yekushandisa nekugadzirisa.

II. Zvinhu Zvikuru Zvinokanganisa Mari Yekugadzira Magetsi

Pamusoro pezvinhu zvikuru zvataurwa pamusoro apa, mari yekugadzira magetsi emayuniti anogadzira gasi rechisikigo inokanganiswawo nezvinhu zvakasiyana-siyana zvakaita senzira yekutenga gasi, kurongeka kwemitemo, kuvandudzwa kwemusika wekabhoni, marongerwo enzvimbo uye maawa ekushandisa mayuniti, pakati pazvo kukanganisa kwenzira yekutenga gasi uye kuvandudzwa kwemusika wekabhoni ndiko kwakanyanya.

(I) Nzira yeKutengesa Gasi uye Guarantee yeKubva kweGasi

Kugadzikana kwemitengo yegesi yechisikigo uye mamodheru ekutenga zvinosarudza zvakananga mafambiro emitengo yemafuta, uye zvinozokanganisa mitengo yese yekugadzira magetsi. Parizvino, mutengo wegesi yechisikigo wemuno wagadzira nzira yekubatanidza "mutengo wekuenzanisa + mutengo unoyangarara". Mutengo wekuenzanisa wakabatana nemitengo yemafuta asina kuchena epasi rose neLNG, uye mutengo unoyangarara unogadziriswa zvichienderana nekuwanikwa kwemusika uye kudiwa. Kuchinja kwemitengo kunotumirwa zvakananga kumagumo emutengo wekugadzira magetsi. Kugona kwevimbiso yesimba regesi kunokanganisawo mitengo. Munzvimbo dzinotakura zvinhu dzakadai seYangtze River Delta nePearl River Delta, nzvimbo dzinogamuchira LNG dzakanyanya kuwanda, huwandu hwekubatana kwenetiweki yemapaipi hwakakwira, mutengo wekutumira nekugovera wakaderera, kuwanikwa kwegesi kwakagadzikana, uye mutengo wemafuta unodzorwa zvishoma; nepo mudunhu rekuchamhembe kwakadziva kumadokero, rakaganhurirwa nenzvimbo dzekugovera nekutumira nekuparadzira gasi, mutengo wekutumira nekuparadzira gasi rechisikigo wakakwira, zvichikwidza mutengo wekugadzira magetsi wemayuniti ekugadzira munzvimbo iyi. Pamusoro pezvo, mabhizinesi anogona kuvharira mitengo yegesi nekusaina zvibvumirano zvenguva refu zvekupa gasi, zvichidzivirira njodzi dzemitengo dzinokonzerwa nekuchinja kwemitengo yegesi yepasi rose.

(II) Kutungamirirwa kweMaitiro uye Maitiro eMusika

Maitiro emutemo anonyanya kukanganisa mitengo yakazara uye mwero wemari yezvikamu zvinogadzira gasi rechisikigo kuburikidza nekutumira mari uye muripo wemari. Mumakore achangopfuura, China yakasimudzira zvishoma nezvishoma kugadziriswa kwemutengo wemagetsi wezvikamu zviviri wekugadzira simba regasi rechisikigo, izvo zvakatanga kuitwa mumapurovhinzi akadai seShanghai, Jiangsu neGuangdong. Kudzoserwa kwemutengo wakatarwa kunovimbiswa kuburikidza nemutengo wesimba, uye mutengo wesimba wakabatana nemutengo wegesi wekutumira mari yemafuta. Pakati pavo, Guangdong yakasimudza mutengo wesimba kubva pa100 yuan/kW/gore kusvika pa264 yuan/kW/gore, izvo zvinogona kufukidza 70%-80% yemitengo yakatarwa yepurojekiti, zvichideredza dambudziko rekutumira mari. Panguva imwe chete, mutemo wemuripo wezvikamu zvinokurumidza kutanga mumusika webasa rekubatsira wakawedzera kuvandudza chimiro chemari yemapurojekiti emagetsi anoshandiswa negasi. Mutengo wemuripo wepamusoro-soro mune dzimwe nzvimbo wasvika pa0.8 yuan/kWh, iyo yakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura mari yemagetsi yakajairika.

(III) Kuvandudzwa kweMusika weKabhoni uye Mabhenefiti Asina Kabhoni

Nekuvandudzika kuri kuramba kuchiita musika wenyika wekodzero dzekubudisa kabhoni, mitengo yekabhoni yave ichichinja zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichiva chinhu chakakosha chinokanganisa hupfumi hwemayuniti anogadzira gasi rechisikigo. Simba rekubudisa kabhoni dhayokisaidhi muyuniti yemagetsi ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo rinosvika 50% yesimba remagetsi emarasha (anenge magiramu 380 eCO₂/kWh vs. anenge magiramu 820 eCO₂/kWh emagetsi emarasha). Zvichienderana nekukwira kwemitengo yekabhoni, zvakanakira kabhoni shoma zviri kuramba zvichionekwa. Mutengo wekabhoni wemuno uripo parizvino ungangoita 50 yuan/tani yeCO₂, uye unotarisirwa kukwira kusvika 150-200 yuan/tani panosvika 2030. Tichitora imwe chete ye600,000-kilowatt ine utsi hwegore negore hwematani angangoita mamiriyoni matatu eCO₂ semuenzaniso, simba remagetsi rinoshandisa marasha richafanira kuwedzera 450-600 miriyoni yemitengo yekabhoni pagore panguva iyoyo, nepo simba remagetsi rinoshandisa gasi riri 40% chete yesimba remagetsi rinoshandisa marasha, uye musiyano wemutengo uripo pakati pesimba rinoshandisa gasi nesimba rinoshandisa marasha uchawedzerwa. Pamusoro pezvo, mapurojekiti emagetsi anoshandisa gasi anogona kuwana mari yakawanda nekutengesa huwandu hwekabhoni hwakawandisa mune ramangwana, izvo zvinotarisirwa kuderedza mutengo wemagetsi wehupenyu hwese ne3%-5%.

(IV) Maawa Ekushandisa Unit

Maawa ekushandisa mayuniti anokanganisa zvakananga mhedzisiro yemitengo yakatarwa. Maawa ekushandisa akakwira, mutengo wekugadzira simba reyuniti unoderedza. Maawa ekushandisa mayuniti ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo ane hukama hwakanyanya nemamiriro ekushandisa: nzvimbo dzemagetsi dziri pakati, senzvimbo dzemagetsi dzinodzora zvakanyanya, dzinowanzova nemaawa ekushandisa emaawa 2500-3500; nzvimbo dzemagetsi dzakaparadzirwa, dziri pedyo nezvinodiwa zvemagetsi zvemapaki eindasitiri nenzvimbo dzedata, dzinogona kusvika maawa ekushandisa emaawa 3500-4500, uye mutengo wekugadzira simba reyuniti unogona kuderedzwa ne0.03-0.05 yuan/kWh. Kana maawa ekushandisa ari pasi pemaawa 2000, mitengo yakatarwa haigone kuderedzwa zvinobudirira, izvo zvinotungamira mukuwedzera kukuru kwemutengo wekugadzira simba rose uye kunyange kurasikirwa.

III. Mamiriro Emutengo Weindasitiri Pari Zvino

Pamwe chete nedata remaindasitiri aripo, pasi pemuenzaniso wemutengo wegesi rechisikigo we2.8 yuan/cubic meter, maawa ekushandisa emaawa 3000 uye mutengo wecarbon we50 yuan/tani yeCO₂, mutengo wemagetsi wenguva yakazara wemapurojekiti e typical combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) ungangoita 0.52-0.60 yuan/kWh, wakakwira zvishoma pane wesimba remarasha (anenge 0.45-0.50 yuan/kWh), asi wakaderera zvakanyanya pane mutengo wesimba rinogona kudzokororwa nekuchengetedza simba (anenge 0.65-0.80 yuan/kWh).

Kubva pamaonero emusiyano wenzvimbo, kubatsirwa nekuwanikwa kwegesi kwakasimba, rutsigiro rwemitemo rwakawedzerwa uye kugamuchirwa kwemitengo yakakwira yekabhoni, mutengo wemagetsi wezviteshi zvemagetsi zvinoshandisa gasi munzvimbo dzinotakura magetsi dzakadai seYangtze River Delta nePearl River Delta unogona kudzorwa pa0.45-0.52 yuan/kWh, izvo zvine hwaro hwehupfumi hwekukwikwidzana nesimba rinoshandisa marasha; pakati pavo, semuongorori wekutengesa kabhoni, avhareji yemutengo wekabhoni weGuangdong muna 2024 yakasvika 95 yuan/ton, pamwe chete nehurongwa hwekuripa simba, mukana wemutengo uri pachena. Mudunhu rekuchamhembe kwakadziva kumadokero, rakaganhurirwa nevimbiso yesimba remagetsi uye mari yekutumira nekuparadzira, mutengo wekugadzira simba reyuniti unowanzo pfuura 0.60 yuan/kWh, uye hupfumi hwepurojekiti hauna kusimba.

Kubva pamaonero eindasitiri yese, mutengo wekugadzira magetsi emayuniti ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo unoratidza mafambiro ekugadzirisa "akaderera munguva pfupi uye ari nani munguva refu": munguva pfupi, nekuda kwemitengo yepamusoro yegesi uye maawa mashoma ekushandisa mune dzimwe nzvimbo, nzvimbo yepurofiti yakaganhurirwa; munguva yepakati nerefu, nekusiyana kwenzvimbo dzegasi, kuwanikwa kwemidziyo munzvimbo, kukwira kwemitengo yekabhoni uye kuvandudzwa kwemaitiro emutemo, mutengo uchadzikira zvishoma nezvishoma. Zvinotarisirwa kuti panosvika 2030, mwero wekudzoka kwemukati (IRR) wemapurojekiti emagetsi anoshanda negasi ane hunyanzvi hwekutarisira zvinhu zvekabhoni uchave wakagadzikana pakati pe6%-8%.

IV. Nzira Dzinokosha Dzekugadzirisa Mutengo

Pamwe chete nekuumbwa kwemari uye zvinhu zvinopesvedzera, kugadzirisa mitengo yekugadzira magetsi emayunitsi ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo kunofanirwa kutarisa pazvinhu zvina zve "kudzora mafuta, kuderedza mari yekudyara, kugadzirisa mashandiro nekuchengetedza, uye kunakidzwa nemitemo", uye kuona kudzikiswa kuri kuramba kuchiitika kwemitengo yakazara kuburikidza nehunyanzvi hwetekinoroji, kubatanidzwa kwezviwanikwa uye kubatana kwemitemo.

Chekutanga, kugadzirisa kutengeswa kwegasi uye kudzora mitengo yemafuta. Simbisai kushanda pamwe chete nevatengesi vakuru vegasi rechisikigo vemuno, sainai zvibvumirano zvenguva refu zvegasi kuti muvhare mitengo yegasi; kukurudzira marongerwo akasiyana-siyana egasi, kuvimba nekuwedzera kwekugadzirwa kwegasi reshale muno uye kuvandudzwa kwezvibvumirano zvenguva refu zvekutenga LNG kuti muderedze kuvimba nemitengo yepasi rose yegasi; panguva imwe chete, gadzirisai sisitimu yekupisa unit, vandudzai kushanda zvakanaka kwekugadzira simba remagetsi, uye kuderedza kushandiswa kwemafuta pagasi rega rega.

Chechipiri, kukurudzira kushandiswa kwemidziyo munzvimbo dzakasiyana uye kuderedza mari yekuvaka. Ramba uchiwedzera mari mukutsvaga nekuvandudza tekinoroji huru, bvisa matambudziko ekushandiswa kwezvikamu zvakakosha zvematurbine egasi anorema, uye deredza mari yekutenga michina; gadzirisa dhizaini yepurojekiti uye maitiro ekuisa, kupfupisa nguva yekuvaka, uye kuderedza mari yekubhadhara uye mari yekudyara muinjiniya wezvivakwa; sarudza zvine musoro kugona kwemayuniti zvichienderana nemamiriro ekushandisa kuti uwane chiyero pakati pekudyara nekushanda zvakanaka.

Chechitatu, kusimudzira modhi yekushanda nekugadzirisa uye kuderedza mari yekushandisa nekugadzirisa. Vaka puratifomu ine hungwaru yekuongorora, vimba nebig data netekinoroji ye5G kuti uwane yambiro chaiyo yemamiriro ehutano hwemidziyo, uye kurudzira kushandurwa kwemodhi yekushanda nekugadzirisa kubva pa "passive maintenance" kuenda ku "active early warning"; kurudzira nzvimbo ye tekinoroji yekushanda nekugadzirisa, gadzira timu yehunyanzvi yekushanda nekugadzirisa, kuvandudza kugona kwekuchengetedza kwakazvimirira kwezvikamu zvikuru, uye kuderedza mari yekugadzirisa uye yekutsiva zvikamu; sarudza mayuniti anoshanda zvakanyanya kuderedza mukana wekudzima kutadza uye kushandiswa kunodyiwa.

Chechina, nyatsobatana nemarongero uye shandisa mari yakawedzerwa. Tevedzera mitemo yakaita sekubhadhara mutengo wemagetsi wezvikamu zviviri uye mitemo yepamusoro, uye tsvaga rutsigiro rwekutumira mari uye rutsigiro rwemari; gadzira hurongwa hwekutarisira zvinhu zvekabhoni, shandisa zvizere nzira yemusika wekabhoni kuti uwane mari yakawedzerwa nekutengesa huwandu hwekabhoni hwakawandisa uye kutora chikamu muzvishandiso zvemari zvekabhoni, uye wedzera kugadzirisa chimiro chemari; kurudzira dhizaini ye "gas-photovoltaic-hydrogen" multi-energy complement, kuvandudza maawa ekushandisa mayuniti, uye kuderedza mitengo yakatarwa.

V. Mhedziso

Mari yekugadzira magetsi emayunitsi ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo yakatarisana nemutengo wemafuta, inotsigirwa nemari yekudyara mukuvaka, mari yekushandisa nekugadzirisa, uye inokanganiswa nezvinhu zvakawanda zvakaita semutengo wegesi, mutemo, musika wekabhoni uye marongerwo enzvimbo. Hupfumi hwayo hahungotsamiri padanho rayo rehunyanzvi uye kugona kwayo manejimendi, asiwo pakusunga kwakadzama kwemaitiro emusika wesimba uye kurongeka kwemutemo. Parizvino, kunyangwe mutengo wekugadzira magetsi emayunitsi ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo wakakwira zvishoma pane wemagetsi anopfurwa nemarasha, nekufambira mberi kwechinangwa che "kabhoni mbiri", kukwira kwemitengo yekabhoni uye kubudirira kwenzvimbo yemidziyo, zvakanakira zvayo zvine kabhoni shoma uye zvakanakira hupfumi zvichave pachena zvishoma nezvishoma.

Mune ramangwana, nekuvandudzwa kuri kuramba kuchiitwa kwegadziriro yekugadzira gasi rechisikigo, kupa, kuchengetedza uye kushambadza uye kuwedzera kusimba kwekuvandudzwa kwemusika wemagetsi nemusika wekabhoni, mutengo wekugadzira simba remayuniti ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo uchagadziriswa zvishoma nezvishoma, zvichiva rutsigiro rwakakosha rwekubatanidza simba rinogona kuvandudzwa uye kuchengetedzeka kwesimba. Kune mabhizinesi eindasitiri, zvakakosha kunzwisisa zvinhu zvinokanganisa mitengo, kutarisa pane zvakakosha zvekugadzirisa, uye kuramba uchideredza mutengo wekugadzira simba kuburikidza nehunyanzvi hwetekinoroji, kubatanidzwa kwezviwanikwa uye kubatana kwemitemo, kuvandudza kukwikwidzana kwemusika kwemayuniti ekugadzira gasi rechisikigo, uye kubatsira kuvaka sisitimu itsva yesimba uye kushandurwa kwechimiro chesimba.